IDC FutureScape's Top Ten Predictions for China's AI Market in 2024

The International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts that by 2027, global investments in artificial intelligence (AI) will reach $423.6 billion, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.9% from 2022 to 2027. China's contribution to this investment is projected to be $38.1 billion, making up nearly 9% of the total global investment.

Recent technological advancements and market maturity have spurred Chinese companies to speed up their integration of intelligent systems. The emergence of large AI models in late 2022 opened new avenues for companies just entering the market. Prior to this, many businesses faced challenges in scaling AI technology from isolated trials to comprehensive applications due to the lack of streamlined talent and resources.

The complexity of implementing intelligent technology has also been a barrier to digital transformation in companies. However, the advent of large AI models has simplified this process, enhancing AI's adaptability and fostering the growth of innovative products and solutions. Looking ahead, the "model as a service" business approach could revolutionize the market landscape, guiding China into a new phase of digital business evolution.

Here are IDC FutureScape's top ten predictions for the Chinese artificial intelligence and automation market in 2024:

GenAI Security Governance and Service Integration: By 2025, 40% of cloud and software platform providers will integrate GenAI security and governance with their primary services, reducing the risks associated with GenAI threefold.

 Emerging Differences in AI Regulation: By 2026, regional differences in AI regulation will pose significant challenges to multinational corporations, increasing the time and effort spent on handling sensitive incidents by 20%.

Digital Assistants Replacing Software Interfaces  : By 2027, GenAI digital assistants will replace 20% of enterprise software interfaces (including software development), playing a larger role in business processes.

Result-Oriented Enterprise Automation  : After understanding GenAI technology, by 2024, 50% of companies will focus more on the results GenAI brings rather than the implementation of specific technologies.

AI Accounts for 30% of IT Expenditure : By 2026, Fortune 500 companies in China will allocate over 30% of their core IT spending to AI, accelerating product innovation and process improvement at a double-digit rate.

Stabilizing Economic Impact of AI : By 2028, the overall economic impact of AI will stabilize as businesses resolve basic issues and refocus resources on innovation and new business opportunities, thus promoting steady development.

Implementation of Automated Knowledge Retrieval : By 2027, two-thirds of companies will use a combination of generative AI and RAG to support automated knowledge retrieval in specific domains, improving decision-making efficiency by 55%.

Disruptive Business Models  : By 2025, 50% of China's Fortune 500 companies will use innovative business models to double the profit potential of generative AI.

Far-reaching Impact of AGI: By 2027, 25% of China's Fortune 500 companies will attempt to use AGI systems, which will have a transformative impact on society, bringing significant opportunities and challenges.

Reversal in Chip Revenue: By 2028, the expenditure on accelerator chips (GPU, FPGA, ASIC, or ASSP) will overtake that of traditional CPUs, reaching a ratio of 55/45.

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