Ming-Chi Kuo, analyst at TF International Securities and a respected Apple pundit, reported on October 7 that Apple will not be cutting the supply for the iPhone 11 series. On the contrary, the new handset is expected to drive the demand and cultivate the market for the upcoming iPhone SE2.
The new report points out that the iPhone 11 series is estimated to be able to ship about 75 million units this year or even more given there are no disruptions to the supply.
The analyst also expects the new, relatively cheap iPhone 11 to surpass the 2018 iPhone XR in sales, with approximately 40 million units shipped by the end of the year, exceeding the iPhone XR’s 25 million units last year. The surge in shipment figures can be attributed mainly to decreased prices as well as the fact that the iPhone XR was only made available in late October 2018, while the iPhone 11 was released in late September.
“We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY thanks to the iPhone 11’s replacement demand boosted by more affordable prices and iPhone SE2’s shipments starting in 1Q20. We estimate that iPhone shipment in 1Q20 will be 45–50 million units (iPhone 11 Pro series and iPhone 11 to be 13–15 and 22–24 million units, respectively), which is better than around 42 million units of iPhone shipments in 1Q19 (iPhone XS series and iPhone XR to be around 12 and 14mn units, respectively),” wrote Kuo in his research note.
Kuo predicts that the iPhone SE2, the second iteration of the affordable SE series, will go on sale in early 2020, with a price of less than 4,000 yuan (roughly $570) and a design based on the iPhone 8. The insider points out that most of the design and hardware specifications of the iPhone SE2 are similar to those of the iPhone 8, with the most obvious improvement being the new A13 processor and 3GB LPDDR4X memory. Because of its relatively low price, it will take on the challenge of increasing Apple’s market share globally.